Fires In The Midlands
A Socio-Political Strategic Analysis Of The Midaranye Crisis
General Joshua Rhodes
Duke of Somerset
Governor of Wellow
It all started with a grasshopper. Or a locust as it is widely known. A plague straight out of the Christian Bible. In early December it was reported that a large swarm of locusts, several million strong, was predicted to weep down from the north of Royal Seleucid. A swarm this size had not been seen since the disaster of the 1950's and the nation was caught under prepared for the realities. The plague did indeed sweep through Royal Seleucid and threatened the neighbouring countries of Tamora, Slava Lavosk and has crossed the waters into Socram. Fear and famine continue to reign in the area fueled by cultural differences between the Seleucids and the Celtic Protectorate. With the Cultic Genocide fresh in many minds, the food shortages and the untimely death of King Akakois the area has reached a boiling point. Multiple foreign fleets are in the area.
To complicate matters, the long simmering Tamora/Slava Lavosk conflict is on the doorstep of a full on shooting war. The Slavan stance on slavery, backed up by the MCUR, and the Tamoran's tacit approval of chattel slavery has reached a breaking point. There appears to be little in the way of compromise. What's more, the stand off has cast a light upon how many nations interpret the MCUR. Many nations are looking at the actions of their allies and are baffled by their interpretation of the MCUR and stance regarding Tamora and Slava Lavosk.
In this article, I will be providing an overview of the issue nation by nation and providing recommendations and resolutions where possible.
Royal SeleucidAs previously stated in the introduction, the first flames of this current crisis started with the swarm of locusts. in Royal Seleucid. That the nation was underprepared for this is a major failing on the Seleucid government, seeing as the last MAJOR swarm was in the 1950's a mere generation past. From my knowledge there was not adequate monitoring of a reoccurring threat to the nation. There were not adequate stocks of stored food and water. There was not adequate stocks of species specific pesticides and those that were available were not deployed in a timely fashion. The recent Cultist Genocide and the formation of the Celtic Protectorate adds fuel to the fire as perception of stored food, hording and religious and cultural differences appear in the south. Multiple foreign fleets have moved into the area, also causing concern. East Moreland, Bakkermaya, Achkaerin, Vaguzia and Rokkenjima have all deployed tasks forces, specifically to the aid of the Celtic Protectorate, while UC troops attempt to maintain peace in the area. The Kingdom of Seaforth has deployed the RSS Aid Ollain in a humanitarian configuration and the Krimeon and Neu Ubruzis governments have made at least one flight into Royal Seleucid that was were with some hostility by a half starved crowd. Royal Seleucid also has a small cultural bias towards. The last contributing factor is the unseen and untimely death of King Akakois. In conjunction with the ongoing famine and current crisis in the Celtic Protectorate, it could lead to a prolonged and potentially chaotic transition of power as Crown Prince Hadi steps into his role as the next King of Royal Seleucid.
Recommendations:
1) You can't eat a frigate. There is entirely too much weaponry in the area. I reccomend that all foreign militaries be unified into a single task force under East Moreland's Admiral Briggs and that the total size be scaled down. Cruise missiles will not address the primary problem of mass starvation and a destroyed agricultural sector. The mission profile of this task force will be to provide security for the efforts of JET and the initial gathering place of foreign food aid before it is distributed throughout Royal Seleucid.
2) Foreign Aid. Royal Seleucid is facing mass starvation. They need to activey seek foreign aid. Bulk grain ships are available in Seaforth for example. I would recommend that the government use it's position in OPEN to temporarily reduce oil prices or engage in a decreased value for oil when traded for food and edible commodities. This includes seed grain as weel. The Royal Seleucid government must look ahead to the rebuiding of its' agricultural sector, specifically planting for the next growing season. Foreign aid must be delivered to both the Celtic Protectorate and the rest of Royal Seleucid...and in proportion.
3) Preparation. Royal Seleucid must plan for this ongoing problem. As part of the Agricultral Ministry, or the Seleucid equivalent, an organization to monitor the locusts is needed. They must also stock adequate stores of pesticides and employ them earlier when a threat is identified. Finally, it is demonstrated that Royal Seleucid must engage is some kind of food storage program. High nutritional value, long storage food items of the bar or freeze dried variety will provide the nation with a buffer zone where it's people will not starve before foreign food items can begin to arrive, should another plague happen.
4) Celtic Protectorate. At this point, I would declare martial law and curfew. A buffer zone is needed between the Protectorate and the rest of Royal Seleucid, maintained by Admiral Briggs' task force. Internally, UC Peacekeepers must fill the dual missions of agressive enforcement of the peace inconjunction with food distribution. Stop the violence with measured force and stop the cause of violence with food distribution.
5) Crown Prince Hadi. All national leaders who have deployed assets to the area should issue a statement in support of the Crown Prince. A stable government during this time will decrease the pain, suffering and deaths likely to occur.
TamoraThe Tamoran Empire has also been hit hard economically by the locust plague with the cost of some food items doubling in some places. The Tamorans face less of a long term problem with the locusts and their preparations seem to be adequate in dealing with the problem. The Tamoran Empire is however, in the middle of another crisis involving Slava Lavosk. At the heart of this is the issue of slavery, though it is by no means the only facet. The Tamoran Empire, by its own admission hold upwards of 40,000,000 people as chattel slaves. No nation has been louder in opposing this than Slava Lavosk. Despite its continue vocalization of the problem, results from wider Mundus have been slow in coming and indeed, the seem to be able to retain warm relations with many nations. Still others have issued sanctions against the Empire. With hostilities increasing in regards to Slava Lavosk, a shooting war seems to be on the horizon. The Tamorans appear to have a number of allies, some by default. Traditional good relations with Royal Seleucid have now been joined by nations who while perhaps not pro-Tamoran, appear to be solidly anti-Slavan. Rokkenjima falls into this category, as does the recent developments with Quintelia announcing that they would be sending a task for to aid in efforts against Slava Lavosk. Lastly is the long standing issue of the Medak Pocket. Geographically it is a continuation of the Tamoran lowlands and is indeed on the other side of the Lavosk Mountains. Primarily culturally Tamoran, the pocket has been under Slavan authority for decades. Slava Lavosk has, over the last 50 years or so, engaged in a “Slavation” of the area, awarding government benefits to those that slavans would move there.
Reccomendations:
1) Slavery. It is clear that no person has the right to own another and cannot and will not be tolerated by wider Mundus. This is reflected by the signatories of the MCUR. I recommend the complete economic and political isolation of the Tamoran Empire as long as they continue to practice slavery in any form. This includes the closing of all borders, revocation of VISAS, PNGing of diplomatic personel and a naval blockade established by the signatories of the MCUR. It has been argued that economic measures against Tamora will result in the creation of more slaves. This is false. Economics do not create slaves, other people create slaves. There are more than enough poor people and poor nations across Mundus who do not create, nor are slaves to reflect that. It is also important to note that slavery is a cultural institution rather than a precept of the Manist religion.
2) Freestone Mark: I urge the world wide adoption of the Freestone Mark to support the previous point.
3) Medak Pocket: By any reasonable measure, the Medak Pocket is and should be reflected as a natural continuation of Tamora. It is Slavan only at the mark of a pen on a map and an artificial effort to change the traditional demographic. As such, I recommend the ceding of the Medak Pocket to Tamora. Long term this will remove a continuing source of conflict and stabilize the region.
4) MCUR Signatories must also be held accountable in their dealings with the Tamoran Empire. I recommend a series of increasingly harsh economic measures against MCUR signatories that do not adopt the Freestone Mark and continue to do business with Tamora economically or politically as long as the institution of slavery remains.
5)Reinvesture. The transition of 40 million slaves from indenture to paid work will be rocky for a number of reasons. While slave owners are not paying their slaves, it is also true that the now freed slaves will work and pay taxes. While the Tamoran government is obligated to assist it’s people, slave and non-slave alike, I would encourage the nations of Mundus, especially MCUR signatories and the Mundus Development Bank, to invest in Tamora. This will help to alleviate some of the transitional pains and will encourage the stable and beneficial transition of the Tamoran economy.
Slava LavoskAs mentioned previously, Slava Lavosk is the loudest anti-slavery voice in Mundus, barring the Iwi. However, you cannot take that at face value alone. I firmly believe that the Slavan stance is primarily to neutralize its large and aggressive neighbour. As mentioned before, Slava Lavosk is engaged in a directed effort to change the natural demographics of the Medak Pocket. By attacking slavery, Slava Lavosk is attempting to undermine the current economy of its enemy and attempting to garner allies. Such is the case with Socram. While overtly benevolent, the anti-slavery stance and the promised aid to Socram…I believe that there is a darker purpose afoot.
President Kravec is by all accounts a charismatic leader, full of passion. Photographic and corroborating evidence on the other hand show he is susceptible to manic bouts. I encourage you to review the brutal execution of Dilara Haghighi. With the manic bouts and his behavior during execution, I suspect President Kravec also has the dark depressive side of someone suffering from bipolar disorder. Historically, Slava Lavosk was closely allied to, but not subservient to the USR. This was done by Slava’s leader to maintain its own position of independence in the face of the power of the soviet bloc as well extend its own power base. President Kravec was a minor military official during that time and the fall of the USR elevated him into his current position. Intelligence indicates that though a mediocre army officer, President Kravec was a master politician. I see no reason to doubt that is still true.
I maintain that the ceding of the Medak Pocket to Tamora would be the best long term solution for Slava Lavosk, though what may be best for Slava Lavosk may not be the best for Vaclav Kravec. Indeed, I see a pattern emerging that shows the president becoming more aggressive and confrontational. The Medak Pocket is now a heavily fortified military zone with minimal civilians present. Any force entering the pocket will take catastrophic losses. The Slavan navy continues to mine not just their own waters, but continually violates the Fair Seas Concordant by mining international waters as well.
Recommendations:
1) Fair Seas Concordant. Slava Lavosk is in clear violation of the Fair Seas Concordant. The deliberate mining of international waters is a danger to all ships in the area. A task force not consisting of potential belligerents should be active in minesweeping operations.
2) Rokkenjima. I am at a loss as to why Empress Beatrice will not remove the Enterprise Task Force from the local area. Rokkenjima is not under threat currently and will still not be if the Enterprise retreats. Should the Task force be removed, talks can happen. If the situation changes, the Task Force can always be returned. I would encourage her to pull back the Task force outside of missile range. This will force the Quintelian Navy to also pull back and allow Slava Lavosk to feel less penned in by Tamora and her potential allies. With room to breathe comes room to talk.
3) Broken Alliances. Slava Lavosk is proving adept at driving a wedge between allies. Such is the case with LISA. Vaguzians have said they would fire on Rokkenjiman ships, Achkaerin has established an exclusion zone regarding Rokkenjiman ships and Rokkenjima has scheduled a referendum regarding continued membership in LISA. As LISA fractures, Slava Lavosk is actively expanding it's own sphere. Courting an ally in Socram, Slava Lavosk has provided pesticides, food and seed grain to the island. Should that relationship develop it could put the Gulf of Auraxis and all the waters in between Midaranye and Socram firmly into the hands of a Slavan/Socram alliance. As that deal is finished another arrives. Earlier this week, Slava Lavosk was invited to the Slavic Summit of Frienship and Cooperation. There is no telling what could develop in the Krimeon city of Kislev, but it merely underlines the fact that Slava Lavosk is not sitting silently or idle waiting for Tamora to attack but actively and aggressively strengthening their position while weakening the positions of others.
One final thought in regards to Slava Lavosk. The expansion of the Balkan Industries chemical plant includes several dual use technologies, including a gaseous centrifuge separation plant, a gaseous diffusion separation plant, and a chemical exchange separation plant. That combined with a recently reactivated nuclear reactor as well as unusual activity in monitored technology and some unexplained seismic activity in an area with no previous record of seismic activity leads me to believe that if Slava Lavosk is not already in possession of thermonuclear weapons, they are actively engaged in obtaining them.