Rokkenjiman Departure From LISA Not All That Surprising
"The language from Pyrettania has relayed a message that most should not respond to the LISA referendum with any manner of surprise: an era in which Rokkenjima associates itself with traditional military alliances is in its twilight." Evanthe RhodesEmpress Emerita Evanthe sat down with the RBC to offer her views on the situation engulfing LISA.
While some seemed surprised that a referendum on continued Rokkenjiman membership in LISA was to take place I personally saw the writing on the wall long ago. Throughout modern history Rokkenjima was a proponent of military alliances, herself forming the Cross-Straits Treaty Organisation as a response to a global campaign of hostility and aggression perpetrated by the Warsaw Powers, yet even in the later days of the CSTO a growing desire in the halls of power, Pyrena Castle and the Imperial Diet respectively, quite openly voiced their discontent with the arrangement into the modern era. These voices grew louder following the fall of the Warsaw powers; certainly the CSTO would find no threat in the CIS, and not one state or assembly of states posed a direct threat to the CSTO or any of its constituent members. If it wasn't the policies put forth by Achkaerin, only to be woefully amplified by Vaguzia, I'm confident that we'd have seen headlines of a Rokkenjiman withdrawal from LISA within the next two years regardless.
Increasingly we have seen the Empress warn of the dangers of large accumulations of military might as presently exemplified by LISA and CNN, warnings echoed by outgoing Deputy Premeir Sugano, perhaps the most powerful elected official following the vote to dismantle the Office of Premier:
'We must also review the necessity of vast accumulations of military might in alliances, such as the CNN or LISA, in an era where there is no clear adversary which poses a common threat to our People or our prosperity. Just as these institutions may be tools of maintaining peace, so too may they become tools with which to strangle the sovereign will of nations."' The Empress herself has noted, despite the lack of a threat such as Warsaw, we see before us two accumulations of military might with no clearly defined adversary. The assessment that such accumulations of military might are inherently dangerous, I believe, is not misguided.
The lack of an application of Rokkenjiman military might, indeed even the absence of motions before the CTO, when viewed through this lens, begins to make more sense to an outside observer. The Empress undoubtedly recognizes the role she played which has led us to this very situation, indeed the circumstances of the past few years must also weigh greatly upon her. When we look at a related institution, the Commonwealth Treaty Organisation, it is arguable that it no longer maintains the capability, nor the inherent authority, with which to act. With two organisations aiming to fulfill a similar role their very coexistence undermines the type of authority which would be required to mount the operations, and indeed expectations, which people look for them to provide. With a set of nations that subscribe to the CTO, another to the CMA and yet a third which subscribe to neither, the type of cohesive unifying force which makes the institutions work quite simply cannot exist, dooming them to ultimately fail.
With the breakdown of relations between Rokkenjima and Vaguzia I am left astounded that, increasingly in recent days, those in Vaguzia seem to be comfortable in the position that these decisions have been rooted in sound judgement and good cause. Regardless of the phrases employed, the terminology presented, stating that you
may fire upon allied forces is as good as saying you
will fire upon allied forces. When the Holy Empire implemented its "No Entry Zone" for Rokkenjiman vessels instead of first communicating with Rokkenjima the most visible of recent cracks within LISA were clearly apparent; it's not how allies have operated, nor how they should operate.
What should have happened, under normal circumstances, would have been someone picking up the phone, starting a video call,
something to relay whatever concerns were held in Achkaerin and Vaguzia. From there appropriate actions could have been determined, and a coordinated path forward agreed to and followed which preserved at least the illusion of the unity of the alliance. With these developments it is clear that LISA is in fact not a united force and is willing to engage in public spectacle aimed at an allied power. When one combines the rumblings of Vaguzian officials openly contemplating the prospect of firing upon Rokkenjiman vessels, regardless of their rationale or the manner in which they phrased it, with rhetoric which sounds like it was read from a script provided by Kravec himself it is woefully guided, horribly implemented policy which undermines the foundation of any alliance. Vaguzia has in her conduct become a great benefactor for President Kravec and the ruthless regime he commands, but perhaps my husband said it best in his recent contribution to the Free Mundus Network:
Broken Alliances. Slava Lavosk is proving adept at driving a wedge between allies. Such is the case with LISA. Vaguzians have said they would fire on Rokkenjiman ships, Achkaerin has established an exclusion zone regarding Rokkenjiman ships and Rokkenjima has scheduled a referendum regarding continued membership in LISA. As LISA fractures, Slava Lavosk is actively expanding it's own sphere. Courting an ally in Socram, Slava Lavosk has provided pesticides, food and seed grain to the island. Should that relationship develop it could put the Gulf of Auraxis and all the waters in between Midaranye and Socram firmly into the hands of a Slavan/Socram alliance. As that deal is finished another arrives. Earlier this week, Slava Lavosk was invited to the Slavic Summit of Frienship and Cooperation. There is no telling what could develop in the Krimeon city of Kislev, but it merely underlines the fact that Slava Lavosk is not sitting silently or idle waiting for Tamora to attack but actively and aggressively strengthening their position while weakening the positions of others.
Sure the writing may have been on the wall, however, the actions of Vaguzia and to a lesser extent Achkaerin have undoubtedly accelerated the process. I'm quite confident that both Pyrettania and Valtheim will mend this setback in relations given time and some much needed discussion, however, I don't see a diplomatic revival so long as Vaguzia refuses to see where they have made grave mistakes, especially when the stakes are as high as they are. With the future course upon which the Empress appears to be guiding Rokkenjima toward, however, I see a much needed realignment and refocusing of energies which have, in the past, been needlessly wasted. It is in this new direction that, ultimately, a Rokkenjiman withdrawal from LISA may be seen in hindsight as ultimately inevitable.
